The outlook is grim for Ukraine, a country exhausted by war. They are facing shortages of soldiers and ammunition, and there are concerns about receiving aid from the West. Additionally, Ukrainian forces are up against a resurgent Russian enemy that currently has the upper hand in battle.

Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion captured nearly a quarter of the country, the stakes could not be higher for Kyiv. After a string of victories in the first year of the war, fortunes have turned for the Ukrainian military, which is dug in, outgunned and outnumbered against a more powerful opponent.

As the conflict approaches its third year, let’s examine the current state on the frontlines, future obstacles, and potential ramifications if Ukraine is unable to obtain the necessary resources, supplies, and aid to continue the battle.

What is the current situation?

Ukraine’s successes have now shifted to setbacks as they navigate the winding front line in the eastern part of the country. As Russia gains the upper hand and resources become scarce, and with a recent significant change in the military, concerns arise about Kyiv’s ability to persist.

According to General Richard Barrons, a co-chair of a defense consultancy and a British military officer, currently, neither party has emerged as the victor nor the loser in the war. Both sides are far from surrendering and have used up most of their resources and personnel since the beginning of the conflict.

The anticipated summer counteroffensive in Ukraine did not result in any progress and the country experienced setbacks. In response, the armed forces shifted to a defensive position in the fall to defend against further advances from Moscow.

On February 17th, Russian military gained authority over the besieged town of Avdiivka, where Ukrainian soldiers were facing continuous attacks from Russian forces advancing from multiple directions. The lack of personnel and ammunition had been a concern for Ukrainian leaders for several weeks. This marked the largest success for Russia in the battlefield since their conflict in Bakhmut and solidified the advancement of Moscow’s offensive.

Ukraine has achieved success in the Black Sea by utilizing long-range weaponry to attack military facilities in Crimea and using maritime drones to sink Russian warships. The Atlantic Council reports that Ukraine has managed to incapacitate a significant portion of the Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine is seeking to obtain additional long-range missiles in order to target areas deep within Russian-occupied land. This action is causing concern among certain European nations, as they worry it could lead to increased tensions with Moscow.

What is the death toll?

Both Russia and Ukraine have attempted to conceal the number of casualties.

There is limited information available about the fatalities of the Ukrainian military during the 2022 invasion. However, it is evident that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have lost their lives.

In 2023, a report was released stating that approximately 50,000 Russian men lost their lives in the war. Two Russian media organizations, Mediazona and Meduza, collaborated with a data scientist from Tubingen University in Germany to examine data provided by the Russian government.

What will occur if Ukraine is unable to locate additional soldiers?

If Ukraine does not have additional troops, their defensive positions will become too spread out and open to possible attack from Russia. This risk increases if Moscow decides to launch multiple, aggressive attacks along the 1,000-kilometer front line.

According to legislators, there is an average shortage of 25% in personnel across Ukrainian brigades in the military. Due to this, military leaders are struggling to provide their soldiers with adequate rest, and there has been a recent increase in attacks from Russia. As a result, soldiers are fatigued and at a higher risk of injury, further worsening the impacts of the personnel shortage.

The military leaders of Ukraine have stated that they require 450,000 to 500,000 more soldiers for the upcoming stage of the conflict. Even if Ukraine manages to gather that many recruits, it would still be vastly outnumbered by Russia, whose population is more than three times that of Ukraine.

For several months, legislators have been considering a contentious plan to expand the pool of conscripts, as numerous Ukrainian men refuse to participate in the conflict within Ukrainian cities.

Leaders report a lack of personnel for trench digging and offensive actions. Insufficient numbers have also resulted in a change of strategy, prioritizing the safety of existing soldiers even if it means relinquishing control of certain areas.

What is the status of weapons and ammunition?

If their actions persist, the lack of ammunition may put Ukraine’s ability to retain land and protect its soldiers at risk.

The military seems to be limiting the distribution of shells, only sending small amounts to firing locations in order to save their supply. However, promises from Western allies for additional ammunition have not been kept. The European Union, who pledged to provide 1 million rounds by the beginning of the year, has only delivered a few hundred thousand.

According to Barrons, Russia is currently ramping up its military equipment production and could potentially launch 5,000 artillery rounds per day in the near future. While Ukraine is also increasing its own weaponry manufacture, they will not be able to match Russia’s output in the immediate future.

Military leaders have expressed concerns about a lack of ammunition for various weapons, including infantry fighting vehicles, machine guns, artillery, and multiple rocket launch systems. The shortages have become especially severe by the end of 2023, with some artillery commanders reporting that they can only fulfill 10% of their ammunition requirements.

Commanders say long-range artillery in particular serves two important purposes: First, it acts as a protective umbrella to cover infantry, allowing them to hold territory and prepare for offensive operations. Second, by striking Russian troops and heavy weaponry from a distance, artillery prevents planned assaults by seriously degrading Moscow’s capabilities.

If Ukraine does not have it, they will continue to face constant attacks from Russia’s artillery. Military leaders state that their troops must dig in further in order to maintain their positions.

Is support from the West decreasing, and what would be the impact if it does?

Ukraine depends on Western allies and international organizations not only for military assistance, but also for financial aid and humanitarian aid.

Ukraine would not be able to sustain its war efforts without support from the West. This includes essential supplies like weapons, ammunition, and training. Additionally, their struggling economy would not be able to survive, and civilians caught in the middle of fighting would not receive necessary aid.

This year, Western countries have been less generous with financial support due to disagreements within the EU about the future of aid and a delay in the approval of $60 billion in military aid by the United States Congress.

In February, the EU’s approval of extending a 50 billion-euro ($54 billion) aid package for Ukraine was a sigh of relief for Kyiv, following resistance from Hungary. The funds are intended for economic support and rebuilding efforts, rather than for fighting against Russia.

However, it is the financial support from the United States that numerous Ukrainian officials are anticipating. This funding will allow Ukraine to buy weapons and supplies from American companies, gain access to additional military training and intelligence sharing, and strengthen its air and sea defenses. Additionally, the funds will directly support Kyiv’s budget.

The leaders of Ukraine require assistance from the West in order to fund the salaries of government employees and healthcare workers.

According to the United Nations and its partner agencies, if a request for $3.1 billion in additional funding for the year is not met, the U.N. will be unable to provide for the basic necessities of 8.5 million Ukrainians living in the conflict zone.

Source: voanews.com