The IMF stated that on Thursday, the executive board authorized a third assessment of Ukraine’s $15.6 billion loan plan. This will make $880 million available for the country’s budget and brings the total amount obtained to $5.4 billion.

The international creditor stated that Ukraine continues to face significant risks, specifically in regards to the ongoing war with Russia and the availability of external funding. However, the mission chief for Ukraine, Gavin Gray, expressed belief that the conflict will come to an end by the end of 2024 according to the fund’s expectations.

According to Gray, Ukraine has successfully maintained a strong performance in its Extended Fund Facility program with the IMF over the course of one year. Kyiv has met all but one of the quantitative performance criteria, with the exception being a small deficit in tax revenues.

According to Gray, Ukraine is expected to receive the money within the next few days. This would be positive news as discussions in the U.S. Congress continue regarding the approval of a $61 billion emergency aid package for Ukraine. Gray also mentioned that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would need to assess the potential effect on Ukraine’s debt if there was a change from a grant to a loan in some of the U.S. funding.

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sanctioned a recent evaluation of Ukraine’s debt sustainability, according to Sanaa Nadeem, the Deputy Mission Chief for Ukraine. This analysis did not significantly alter the macroeconomic analysis, but it did remove approximately $3 billion in debt from Russian Eurobonds, which had been disputed by Ukrainian officials.”

She informed journalists that there was substantial improvement in the restructuring of Ukraine’s commercial debt. The IMF anticipates that there will be further discussions on this matter in the following weeks.

Strong anchor

The International Monetary Fund stated that its loan plan remains a steadfast support for Ukraine’s economic strategy, even though the country has faced difficult situations due to Russia’s ongoing war, which has been going on for three years now.

According to the IMF, Ukraine’s economy was surprisingly resilient in 2023, but challenges started to resurface in 2024. Growth is projected to slow down to 3-4% due to war-related uncertainties and increasing supply limitations.

In a statement, IMF leader Kristalina Georgieva stated that there are extremely high risks to the outlook due to the uncertainty surrounding war and potential delays in external financing. As a result, the recovery is expected to slow down.

“The officials must remain cautious of these potential dangers. It is crucial that the external funding promised to Ukraine by all benefactors is distributed promptly and reliably in order to protect Ukraine’s hard-earned economic stability.”

One crucial aspect in determining Ukraine’s destiny is the repatriation of approximately 6.5 million individuals, mostly women and children, who have fled the nation due to the conflict and are residing beyond its borders.

Nadeem stated that according to the IMF, there is a projected loss of approximately 2 million individuals, and there is a possibility that this number could increase if the war continues for an extended period of time.

She acknowledged that the current circumstances are difficult and will create obstacles for society. She also mentioned that Ukraine already had a growing elderly population before the war.