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The forecasts issued by the US Hurricane Center will now encompass inland regions as well.
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The forecasts issued by the US Hurricane Center will now encompass inland regions as well.

The National Hurricane Center is updating their “cone of uncertainty” for predicting the location and intensity of tropical storms. This year, it will also provide forecasts for inland regions, as wind and flooding can be more hazardous there than coastal damage.

The National Hurricane Center, located in Miami, announced on Thursday through the X social media platform that a new forecast tool will be available by August 15. This falls just before the usual peak of hurricane season, which starts on June 1.

The center stated in the post that this experimental graphic will effectively illustrate the risk of wind hazards not only along the coast but also inland.

The standard cone that has been used for many years typically displays the projected path of a hurricane or tropical storm, but it primarily emphasizes wind and storm surge along coastal areas. Forecasters always caution against solely relying on the center line. Inland areas can also experience fatal heavy rains and powerful winds, as demonstrated by Hurricane Ian in 2022, which claimed the lives of 149 individuals in Florida.

According to Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the hurricane center, the aim of the extended forecast cone is to inform individuals who do not reside near a coast about potential dangers they may still encounter. The updated cone utilizes different colors to indicate areas that may be at risk in a wider scope than previous forecasts. Rhome stated that if someone resides in one of these regions, they are considered to be at risk.

Experts say that there is increasing evidence that the effects of climate change, such as higher sea levels, are causing the most severe hurricanes to become even stronger. This is also resulting in a higher chance for developing hurricanes to rapidly intensify, resulting in more flooding and stronger storm surges along coastlines.

After Ian tore through Fort Myers, Florida, the hardest-hit area where multiple fatalities occurred, the hurricane continued to pour rain and knock down trees in a large portion of the state. Flooding was documented in various locations, including Orlando and its popular amusement parks, as well as Kissimmee to the south, Daytona Beach to the east, and the cattle and citrus region in central Florida.

According to the hurricane center, Ian caused a rainfall of 10 to 20 inches (51 centimeters) in central Florida.

Residents living near rivers were greatly and perhaps surprisingly impacted. Following Ian’s trek through DeSoto County and the subsequent flooding of the Peace River, Fire Chief Chad Jorgensen advised residents to evacuate, citing the river’s unpredictability and potential danger.

The first named storm of 2024 will be Alberto. The 2023 season saw 20 named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including seven hurricanes. Only Hurricane Idalia struck the U.S., coming ashore in the lightly populated Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf Coast but also causing significant inland flooding.

Source: voanews.com